Did the price of Panax notoginseng fall to the bottom? Seven farmers are busy planting
In Wenshan Sanqi market, workers are screening Panax notoginseng.
Recently, although the price of Panax notoginseng is still falling, it has stabilized a lot. On January 8, Wenshan Sanqi international trading center continued to drizzle, and business was a little colder than in the past, and many people came to touch the market. Mr. Guo was one of them. Mr. Guo is a native of Wenshan. His family began with his grandfather plant Now, his family has Sanqi bases in Shilin and Maitreya. These days, his family is busy planting Panax notoginseng in Qiubei. "Although the price of Panax notoginseng has fallen sharply, but plant The cost is also much lower, and if the next 37 market improves, it will definitely not lose. "
The timing varies greatly
A few years after the first taste of fresh food, it has become a "10000 yuan household"
Entering Wenshan, Panax notoginseng is a topic that can never be avoided. As we all know, Wenshan is Panax notoginseng planting In the past 60 years, the industry has experienced many big ups and downs, and the price of Panax notoginseng has also experienced a roller coaster type of drastic fluctuations, which also deduces a tragicomedy of making a fortune overnight or losing all one's fortune.
In the 1930s and 1970s, there was no opportunity for me to see the market Panax notoginseng planting Come on. " Mr. Guo's grandfather spent dozens of yuan to buy five or six catties of seeds in the market. He began to plant seeds with the mentality of trying. He didn't expect to get out of hand and plant more than one year. At that time, the average price of Panax notoginseng could reach 200-400 yuan per kilogram, and fresh Panax notoginseng could also be sold for 30 to 40 yuan per kilogram. Every year, it could earn thousands of yuan, and it became a "10000 yuan household" in a few years.
"My father has been in charge of pulling a water truck for me since I graduated from junior high school When Mr. Guo bought a car and a car in 1988, he not only bought a car, but also bought a TV set.
Following the trend of planting suddenly meets the "downhill road"
"70 thousand yuan for planting!" As a result, people began to plant Panax notoginseng in large quantities. Around 1988, there was a peak period of planting Panax notoginseng. For example, in Pingba, the main production area of notoginseng in Wenshan, there were quite a lot of people planting Panax notoginseng at that time.
In 1989, the price of Panax notoginseng began to fall. Dry Panax notoginseng dropped from 3400 yuan per kilogram to 20 or 30 yuan, and fresh Panax notoginseng also dropped from 780 yuan to 78 yuan per kilogram The drop rate is beyond people's expectation, and the development of Panax notoginseng has entered a low ebb.
Since then, the price of Panax notoginseng has not been high. No one can be spared, and Mr. Guo's grandfather is no exception. Fortunately, he made a lot of money in the past few years, and did not fall down in the sudden "downhill road" of the Panax notoginseng industry.
Since the middle and late 1990s, the production of Panax notoginseng has gradually changed from small area planting to large-scale planting, with the area of less than dozens of Mu and more than 100 mu. In 1996, Mr. Guo's grandfather had planted more than 10 mu of Panax notoginseng.
Mr. Guo's grandfather raised a total of six children. He was also a talented family in 1996. Mr. Guo, at the age of 28, had already got his first two kinds of money at the age of 28.
Violent fluctuations such as "roller coaster"
The number of controllable species varies with the market
In the early part of the 21st century, the "three big" and "seven big" planting patterns did not necessarily promote the development of the "three big seven" planting pattern.
According to Mr. Guo, around 1989, the price of fresh Panax notoginseng was 8-10 yuan per kilogram, and the price of red seeds of Panax notoginseng was 20-40 yuan per kilogram. In 2002, the price rose. The price of fresh Panax notoginseng was more than 20 yuan per kilogram, and that of red seeds of Panax notoginseng was more than 120 yuan per kilogram. In 2004, the price of Panax notoginseng began to fall again. The price of fresh Panax notoginseng dropped to 8-10 yuan / kg, and the price of red seed of Panax notoginseng fell even worse. It can only sell about 4-6 yuan per kilogram. There was a big price cut in 2006, and it didn't start to pick up until 2009.
In the successive years of falling prices, about 1 / 3 of the people suffered serious losses and even lost their money, which made some once "rich" notoginseng nouveau riche suddenly "returned to poverty", and some even died.
However, Mr. Guo's family is relatively cautious. Taking the planting scale as an example, it planted more than 10 mu in 2002 and reached 70 mu in 2005. However, with the change of market conditions, it was adjusted to about 10 mu in 2007. So there was no huge loss.
The market price is hard to predict to soar 5 years and enter a trough again
In the market situation of 2006, many growers saw no profit, and 70% of them began to give up planting Panax notoginseng, and the planting area of Panax notoginseng has been compressed a lot.
There was a "late spring cold" after the Spring Festival in 2009. Many Panax notoginseng were damaged by freezing and continued drought after July, which led to a serious reduction in the yield of Panax notoginseng. In addition, the planting area has been declining, leading to the price rise of Panax notoginseng at the end of 2009. After 2010, the price of Panax notoginseng rose again due to the continued drought. By June 2013, the monthly average price of Panax notoginseng reached a record high of 901.18 yuan / kg.
Since 2010, Mr. Guo's family has also begun to turn losses into profits. The planting area of Panax notoginseng has doubled, earning 50.6 million yuan in the second year, doubling year by year since then, and making 2 million yuan a year in 2013. In 2014, 200 mu was planted in Maitreya and Shilin alone, and more than 50 mu was planted in Qiubei.
However, the myth can't last forever. After June 2013, the price of Panax notoginseng continued to rise, and began to fall and fall again, until today it is "a little unbearable".
"After July last year, my family lost 34 million yuan in just half a year." Mr. Guo said that in view of this situation, those small households who only borrowed money to plant Panax notoginseng in the last two years must have lost their money.
Will the price go up when it bottoms out?
It's very busy to invest in planting 77 farmers
The market is so miserable, does anyone dare to plant Panax notoginseng? The answer is yes, and there are many.
Although Mr. Guo's family has planted more than 200 mu of Panax notoginseng, and has suffered serious losses in recent six months, his family has been busy planting Panax notoginseng in Qiubei in the past two days, and plans to plant some in Shilin. This year, it is expected to increase the planting area by dozens of Mu.
Many Panax notoginseng growers have been busy recently. It is believed that the price of Panax notoginseng has been almost reduced and it is unlikely to drop again. At the same time, the cost of planting Panax notoginseng this year is more than 10 times lower than that of last year. Last year, the cost of red seeds per empty space (about 4 square meters) was about 600-700 yuan. This year, it only costs 30-40 yuan to buy a good one. Last year, it costs about 600 yuan to plant a space, but this year it only costs 40-50 yuan, which is much less risky than in previous years.
Mr. Guo said that they did not invest blindly in planting Panax notoginseng. The general principle is to keep enough circulating funds in hand, and expand or reduce the planting area in a planned way, so that even if the market changes badly, they will not lose everything. Therefore, for the general Sanqi planting retail investors, especially those who have no experience in planting Panax notoginseng, their anti risk ability is very weak, so they need to be more cautious and not blindly follow suit.
Seven risks of investment hoarding
According to the development law of Panax notoginseng market in the past few years, it is no accident that we are optimistic about the market in the next few years. Just like investing in planting Panax notoginseng, is it feasible to invest in Panax notoginseng?
"Strictly speaking, there is no real law of development in Panax notoginseng market. The risks of planting and hoarding Panax notoginseng need to be predicted." He tingchao's family has been engaged in Panax notoginseng for thirty or forty years, but he dare not hoard Panax notoginseng too much.
He said that some businesses are hoarding Panax notoginseng. According to the current market situation, if the market of Panax notoginseng can improve, it is expected to make a profit. However, it is uncertain whether the market will improve, how long it will take and how much profit margin it will have after the improvement.
The most important thing is that if everyone thinks so, they are hoarding Panax notoginseng, and the number of people who invest in planting Panax notoginseng is increasing, the market of Panax notoginseng may still be oversupply in the future. In this way, the risk of investment is still very high.